Each month the Scattered Clouds blog takes a look at the wonderful world of tourism through a data and evidence-led lens, all in pursuit of transforming tourism sector data into insight of course!

Harvests that won’t be a festival for tourism - October 2026

About eighteen months ago I wrote a blog about the provenance of food and how important it is for tourism businesses to ensure their customers are aware of policies to support local suppliers, and I’m returning to the subject of eating and drinking this month, but with a different slant.

First a reminder of how integral food and drink is to our visitor economy; in 2025 27% of in person card spending by inbound visitors to the UK was on “Restaurants and Dining” with a further 9% being on “Food and Grocery”. In 2024 15% of domestic tourism overnight trip spend in Great Britain was on “Eating and drinking out”, with a further 6% on “Eating and drinking in your accommodation”.

Finally among this barrage of stats it’s worth highlighting that the share of domestic “tourism day visit” expenditure in 2024 accounted for by “Eating and drinking out” was 24%, with a further 8% on “Food/Drink bought in a shop, market stall or takeaway and consumed during the trip (Not Routine Grocery Shopping)”.

To sum up that previous brace of paragraphs, an awful lot of what tourists spend is on eating and drinking.

Not all trips to a restaurant or pub meet the definition of tourism of course, but it’s worth sharing the latest ONS data on just how many of these establishments there are spread across the UK. As of March the number of licensed restaurants was 38,735, with a further 37,565 unlicensed restaurants and cafes, while there were 37,350 public houses and bars.

As hinted at by my blog’s title this month I fear there are (yet more) challenging times ahead for parts of our hospitality sector, much of which will be down to rising costs, which in turn puts upward pressure on the price charged to the end consumer.

Looking back across the past few years at data from the Consumer Price Index we find that headline CPI was at an index of 141 in the twelve months to August 2026 where 2015 = 100. The index for “Restaurants and cafes” is higher at 154, telling us that eating and drinking out has got relatively more expensive than the overall basket of goods and services.

In its latest set of projections the Bank of England forecast food price inflation of 4% by end of this year, lower than its earlier forecast of 6% but still higher than its expectation for headline inflation.

As with many sectors of the economy there are lags between increases in the cost of inputs and what happens to the price paid by the ultimate consumer. This is especially true for agriculture, in part because it takes time for crops to grow, but also because many suppliers are locked into annual contracts with supermarkets, meaning that even if what the farmer is having to pay is increasing what they are able to charge for their produce is fixed.

Costs faced by our agricultural sector are very much on an upward rather than downward trajectory at present. It was widely reported that the cost of diesel reached a record high at the end of September and this really matters to farmers with much of their machinery being diesel powered. This is also the fuel that is used to transport produce from farms to processing plants and from there to storage, and from there to supermarket shelves.

While supermarkets may have shielded themselves from higher prices for harvested items for several more months this is not true for the wider hospitality industry that tends to buy on wholesale markets, where prices respond much more rapidly to higher costs. As such in the short-term the differential between eating out and buying a “dine in” combo at the local supermarket looks set to grow.

The reasons for the cost of diesel increasing at twice the rate of crude oil are varied, but the lack of refining capabilities around the world and especially here in Britain is one such reason. The US/Israeli war with Iran has dramatically worsened this issue with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but so too has the war between Russia and Ukraine with regular attacks on energy sector infrastructure.

Diesel isn’t the only fuel where prices have spiked, this is true for gas and electricity too, impacting all consumers and businesses, but with the food production industry this can be particularly impactful on those whose harvest relies on heated greenhouses or polytunnels. The energy price cap that applies to households is expected to increase by 16% from the start of January.

Another key agricultural input whose supply has been hit by the Middle East conflict is fertiliser, leading to steep increases in costs, up by roughly one-fifth compared with a year ago. Assuming that fertiliser supplies are available farmers have two choices, either pay the higher rate or reduce the quantity they buy.

Using less fertiliser will, several months from now, lead to lower crop yields.

Next on our somewhat troubling menu of concerns is bluetongue, this being a virus that is spread to livestock (sheep, goats and cattle in particular) by midges, and this past summer it has been particularly prevalent, with more than 1,800 farms having confirmed cases by late last month. While the virus cannot be transmitted to humans it is something that may well diminish supply of certain foodstuffs next spring with a reduction in the number of lambs, which in turn will put upward pressure on prices.

And now it’s time for the weather…, firstly looking back across the past six months which has (almost in all parts of the country) been characterised by exceptionally dry and often exceptionally hot weather.

This has proven a real challenge for those who produce much of our homegrown food, with difficulties in keeping crops such as potatoes and carrots sufficiently irrigated and stalled grass growth due to the drought meaning winterfeed has been being used far earlier than normal to keep livestock fed.

In terms of veg the consensus is that the coming months will see lower yields, with a reduction in both size and quality, all of which will translate into upward pressure on prices. Speaking of vegetables being smaller than usual, it is anticipated that the Christmas staple of Brussel sprouts will be on the diminutive size this year, not just because of the drought but also due to flea beetles being more prevalent than is the norm.

These are headwinds down to recent weather, but we must note the potential for the coming six or so months seeing further challenges in the form of impacts from is set to be the strongest recorded El Niño.

The impacts on the UK of El Niño are less certain and less extreme than is the case for many other parts of the world, but we import a vast proportion of the food we eat, much of which originates from areas that are likely to either see much more or much less rain than is typically the case.

It is expected that this may lead to lower yields and exports of rice from the likes of India and Thailand, while droughts in the USA and parts of Australia could result in lower yields of wheat and grains, and last, but definitely not least, coffee and cocoa production are considered especially vulnerable.

Although by no means a certainty El Niño may lead to more frequent and intense storms in late autumn and winter here in the UK. If we do see above average rainfall then winter crops may have to contend with waterlogged fields, this being unconducive to a promising harvest next spring.

I appreciate this has been a rather “plate half empty” blog, and it is the agricultural rather than tourism sector that is facing the bigger challenge, but food and drink is such an important part of the visitor experience there is no getting away from the fact that the fortunes of the two sectors are intertwined.